烤烟烟叶含梗率对其复烤加工出片率影响的模拟

发布时间:2019-08-26 来源: 短文摘抄 点击:

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  摘 要:为及时准确预测烟草工业所调拨烟叶的出片率,利用2013—2015年毕节大方基地云烟87不同等级烟叶的含梗率数据进行聚类分析,划分为6类。在此基础上,通过调拨烟叶等级平均含梗率和类群平均含梗率作为自变量,利用2013—2014年的加工数据统计建模,探究调拨烤烟含梗率对加工出片率的影响,并用2015年的加工数据资料对模型进行检验。结果表明:烤烟出片率随烟叶收购等级含梗率呈logistic曲线变化,且等级含梗率与类群含梗率预测模型的RMSE均较小,分别为0.621%和0.649%,说明类群含梗率模型具有较好的描述性和预测性;同时,江苏中烟在大方基地主要调拨等级X2F、C3F、B2F的期望出片率分别为63.40%、65.58%、68.60%。
  关键词:烤烟;含梗率;聚类分析;出片率;模拟模型
  中图分类号:TS44+3文献标识码:A文章编号:1006-060X(2019)01-0078-81
  Abstract: In order to predict the strips yield of tobacco leaves allocated by the tobacco industry in time and accurately, the stem content data of Yunyan 87 tobacco leaves of different grades in Bijie Dafang Base from 2013 to 2015 were analyzed through cluster analysis, which were divided into six categories. On this basis, use the average stem content of tobacco grades and the average stem content of tobacco groups as independent variables, this paper attempts to establish a model based on the processing data statistics of 2013-2014 by allocating the average stem content of tobacco grades and the average stem content of tobacco groups as independent variables, to explore the effect of allocating the stem content of flue-cured tobacco on strips yield, and to test the model with the processing data of 2015. The results showed that the strips yield of flue-cured tobacco varied with the stem content of tobacco purchasing grade in a logistic curve, and the RMSE of the prediction models of grade stem content and group stem content were smaller, 0.621% and 0.649% respectively, indicating that the model of group stem content had better descriptiveness and predictability. At the same time, the expected strips yield of X2F, C3F and B2F are 63.40%, 65.58% and 68.60% respectively.
  Key words: flue-cured tobacco; stem rate; cluster analysis; strips yield; simulation model
  對于卷烟工业企业而言,调拨烤烟的收购质量主要从收购品种、等级纯度和等级合格率三个方面评价。基地烤烟品种与卷烟品牌需求有关,是提高烟叶质量和产量的内因[1],生态气候条件能引起烟草生长发育的改变,是影响烟叶质量和产量的外因[2-3],而等级纯度和等级合格率的高低由混有不同部位等级烟叶的多少决定,与收购眼光有关。不同品种、不同生态条件、不同部位等级烟叶的物理特性不同[4],物理特性不仅与烟叶内在质量密切相关,部分指标如含梗率还是影响烟叶加工出片率的关键指标,直接影响到卷烟制造过程、产品风格及其他经济因素[5-7],因此烤烟复烤加工特性很大程度上受烤烟收购质量的影响。为此,江苏中烟根据“定区域,定品种,定品牌”的要求,立足卷烟配方需求,同时兼顾烟农的利益,通过品种筛选试验[8],研究大方基地最适宜品牌发展的烤烟品种,研究发现大方基地最适宜种植的烤烟品种为云烟87,并从2013年开始大方基地统一种植云烟87,既满足了品牌发展,又促进了烟农增收,同时为更好地挖掘特定区域、特定品种的加工特性奠定了基础。
  综上所述,在品种满足需求的基础上,收购质量主要与等级合格率和等级纯度有关,而不同部位等级烟叶的含梗率不同[9],因此调拨烤烟的含梗率必然影响加工出片率。笔者试图通过调拨烤烟的平均含梗率预测出片率,以期为复烤加工过程管理提供有益参考,同时为卷烟工业降本增效、成品原料使用决策提供
  依据。
  1 数据来源与建模方法
  1.1 数据来源
  含梗率、等级合格率和出片率的数据来源于江苏中烟工业有限责任公司。检测样品为2013年—2015处毕节大方基地云烟87的5个加工批次等级烟叶,加

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